🚨 Bitcoin has never faced this before

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Bitcoin bulls are navigating a macro environment unlike any in the asset’s 17-year history. The 30-year TIPS yield — the real, inflation-adjusted return on the longest-dated U.S. government bonds — has climbed to nearly 3%, its highest since 2009. That’s a direct competitor to bitcoin as a long-duration store of value, and its emergence coincides with oil topping $90 as Iranian forces struck tankers off Saudi Arabia and the Iran war entered a new phase. Against that, Alphabet’s earnings showed it raising its AI capex to $195–205 billion, which lit up chipmakers across Asia: Kospi gained 3.6%, Samsung and SK Hynix each up more than 2%. Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in nearly $1 billion across seven straight inflow days — the best run since April. And BitMEX — the exchange that invented perpetual futures in 2016 — announced it is shutting down on September 23.

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Market snapshot

As of 8am EST

Asset

Price

24h

BTC

$65,400

−0.30%

ETH

$1,916

−0.05%

SOL

$77.00

−0.50%

XRP

$1.13

+0.40%

Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data.

A message from Grayscale

Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (ticker: HYPG) is the lowest-fee HYPE fund in the U.S.¹ Hyperliquid is emerging as critical infrastructure for onchain markets — a high-performance blockchain that processed nearly $3 trillion in derivatives volume and generated ~$800 million in revenue in 2025, with no venture capital backing.²

Lowest management fee in its category (0.29%)
Over $100 million in AUM³
Potential staking rewards — HYPG seeks to stake 70%+ of its assets; HYPE staking rewards averaged ~2.2% last year.⁴

HYPG, an exchange traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“40 Act”), and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. HYPG is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. HYPG is not suitable for an investor who cannot afford the loss of the entire investment. An investment in HYPG is not a direct investment in HYPE.

Learn more

¹ Lowest-fee HYPE fund in the U.S. based on management fee of 0.29%. Brokerage fees and other expenses may apply.

² Crypto Briefing, December 26, 2025.

³ Bloomberg L.P. as of 6/X/26. Subject to change.

⁴ Stakingrewards.com. Historical daily average measured from 5/1/25 to 04/21/26. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This information must be preceded or accompanied by a Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF prospectus, which may be obtained by clicking here. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any security in particular. Potential staking rewards are earned by the Fund. Staking rewards are not guaranteed and should not be considered an indication of Fund performance. The Fund’s ability to engage in staking is conditional and may be modified. Staking requires that the Fund lock up HYPE for the period of time required by the staking protocol, meaning the Fund cannot sell or transfer the staked HYPE, thereby making it illiquid for the period it is being staked. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund. © 2026 Grayscale.

CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets.

L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal.

What matters today

Markets

Story 1 of 3

Bulls face a test unlike anything in bitcoin’s 17-year history.

The U.S. 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) is now yielding nearly 3% — a 17-year high. In plain terms, investors can park money in a government-backed bond and earn 3% per year above and beyond inflation, guaranteed for three decades. Bitcoin has never had to compete with a real yield that high. In traditional markets, elevated TIPS yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin. And the argument cuts deeper here: this is the highest real yield in bitcoin’s entire lifespan, which means bitcoin bulls are facing a macro hurdle for which there is no historical precedent to draw on. The counterargument — and it is not without merit — is that bitcoin’s decentralized, censorship-resistant nature makes it a superior store of value regardless of the competition from bonds, and recent data backs that up in at least one dimension: spot ETFs have attracted nearly $1 billion across seven straight days of inflows, the best run since April, suggesting institutions are deploying capital even into this headwind. But the TIPS yield and oil prices — WTI above $90, Brent above $98 as Iran war escalated with tanker strikes off Saudi Arabia — are creating a structural drag that cannot be ignored. BitMEX, the exchange that invented the perpetual swap in 2016 and defined how crypto derivatives markets work globally, announced Thursday it will shut down operations on September 23. The consolidation of the derivatives space around a handful of giants continues.

Markets

Story 2 of 3

Bitcoin trades above $65,000 as Alphabet’s bigger AI bill props up the chip trade.

Bitcoin held near $65,400 on Thursday, down 0.3% on the day but up 1.4% on the week, as Alphabet’s earnings delivered a split verdict that kept chip stocks moving higher. Revenue rose 24% to $119.8 billion, cloud revenue jumped 82%, and both beat expectations. But the headline that moved markets was a fresh increase in the capex forecast — Alphabet now expects to spend $195 to $205 billion on AI infrastructure this year, up from the prior guidance of $180 to $190 billion, citing a “supply-constrained” scramble to meet AI demand. Alphabet’s own shares fell after hours as investors weighed the heavier bill against thinner free cash flow, but for the semiconductor complex bitcoin has tracked all month, more capital flowing into AI infrastructure is unambiguously bullish. Asian chipmakers ran with it: South Korea’s Kospi gained 3.6%, Samsung rose more than 2% and SK Hynix added more than 2%. Bitcoin ETFs attracted almost $500 million this week alone through Thursday — the best weekly performance since early May — bringing the seven-day total to nearly $1 billion. Bitcoin recently topped $66,000 for the first time since mid-June before settling at $65,680. Ether held near $1,916, XRP at $1.13 and Solana at $77. Hyperliquid was the outlier, down 11% on the week. Oil continues to climb, extending a July rally that revives inflation concerns heading into the Federal Reserve’s meeting on July 28–29. Three separate bridge and protocol exploits drained a combined $35 million in under six hours on Thursday, continuing what has been one of the most brutal weeks for onchain security in recent memory.

Policy

Story 3 of 3

Polymarket to challenge France’s nationwide website block.

France’s National Gambling Authority ordered internet providers to block Polymarket’s website last week, going further than the trading restriction the platform had already imposed on French users since November 2024. The ANJ cited exposure to potential losses, identity-check failures, and suspected manipulation of weather-related markets. Polymarket announced it will challenge the decision through the French legal system, calling the order disproportionate because it blocks users who visit the site for market probabilities without any intention to trade. “We are proud that most people come to Polymarket solely to learn the probability of future events relevant to their everyday life with no intention to trade,” the company said. “Prediction markets help source truth.” The dispute turns on how Polymarket’s contracts should be classified. The company describes them as blockchain-based financial instruments traded directly between users, distinguishing its model from a gambling operator that sets odds and trades against customers. France is the latest in a growing list of countries to impose ISP-level blocks: Ukraine blocked Polymarket in January, Argentina in March, and Spain blocked both Polymarket and Kalshi in May. Brazil, India, Indonesia and Romania have also restricted access or classified the platform as an unauthorized gambling service. The case matters beyond Polymarket’s own user count. Coming a month after prediction markets generated over $50 billion in World Cup volume — dwarfing traditional sportsbooks — the French challenge represents the first major regulatory pushback against the category at full speed. How European courts treat the “it’s a financial instrument, not a bet” argument will shape the sector’s regulatory trajectory across the continent.