Is AI absorbing capital that used to go to crypto?

The Coldcard hack lit up bitcoin's mempool. Global stocks are at record highs. Bitcoin isn't. Arthur Hayes thinks the AI bubble is 2008 — and the bailout sends BTC to $1 million. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Wednesday, August 5, 2026   Global equity indexes — the S&P 500, the Dow, MSCI’s All Country World Index — are hitting record highs on AI optimism and progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin is flat at $64,000. That divergence is the signal of the week. Meanwhile the $120 million Coldcard hardware wallet hack that began July 30 has lit up bitcoin’s mempool — 89,031 transactions waiting for miner confirmation, the most since February 2025 — as anxious holders shuffle coins to exchanges and fresh wallets. And Arthur Hayes has put the AI boom in a new frame: it’s not a dot-com repeat, it’s a 2008-style credit blowup in slow motion, and when it cracks, the government bailout could send bitcoin to $1 million. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $64,045 +0.16% ETH $1,872 −0.40% SOL $74.80 −0.60% XRP $1.08 +0.20% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 The $120 million Coldcard hack lights up bitcoin’s memory pool. The $120 million hardware wallet hack that began July 30 and is still ongoing has produced an unexpected side effect: a sharp spike in bitcoin network activity. The number of unconfirmed transactions waiting in bitcoin’s mempool hit 89,031 on Tuesday — the highest since February 2025 — as holders rattled by the Coldcard exploit rushed to shuffle their coins to exchanges and fresh wallets. Santiment data shows active addresses climbed to a three-month high of 712,000 and whale transactions reached a five-month high of 61,800. Higher network activity is generally constructive for valuations, but so far bitcoin has neither rallied nor dropped materially and remains boxed in the $62,000–$65,000 range it has held since May. The Clarity Act remains the most immediate policy binary: the Senate has a three-day window before its August 10 recess, with passage-by-year-end odds now at just 23% on Polymarket — down from roughly 75% in mid-May — and a proposal to attach prediction-market restrictions adding further process risk. The longer-duration macro headwind identified by Bitfinex is the 10-year real yield, now at 2.41% — nine basis points below the 2.5% threshold above which the exchange says bitcoin has never traded, meaning there is no price history above that line. If the real yield clears 2.5% and holds, Bitfinex says the macro tailwind for bitcoin is gone. Also on Wednesday: U.S. employment figures and ISM Services PMI land later today, and Galaxy Digital reports earnings. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 An AI credit bubble could set up bitcoin’s path to $1 million. Arthur Hayes thinks most investors have the AI trade misfiled. In a new essay, the Maelstrom co-founder and BitMEX founder argues the ongoing data-center buildout is a credit story like 2008 — not an earnings story like the 2000 dot-com bust. Hyperscalers are borrowing against data centers stuffed with chips that depreciate fast, and lenders bankroll it believing they are financing technology when the underlying asset is closer to real estate. The break comes when announced capex stops accelerating — Hayes pegs late 2027 into 2028 — with credit keeping flowing past that point the way mortgage lending did into 2007, until the weakest AI debt cracks and drags down whoever is over-levered on it. Hayes expects Washington and Beijing to backstop the wreckage in the name of national security, printing more than they did in 2008. That flood of liquidity is what bottoms bitcoin and drives it toward $1 million. The nearer-term read: the recent AI selloff — Korea’s leveraged unwind included — is a dip inside a bull market, not the start of the bust. Meanwhile Bitfinex adds a real-time trip wire: the 10-year real yield at 2.41% is nine basis points below the 2.5% level above which bitcoin has no price history. Zcash jumped nearly 6% Wednesday and ZEC and BTC futures both showed positive open-interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta — suggesting the buyers using market orders are outpacing sellers — while XLM perpetual funding rates hit −23% annualized, a sharply bearish signal for that token. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Bitcoin and the broader market fail to keep pace as global equities hit record highs. Global stock indexes are printing records — the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at all-time highs Tuesday, MSCI’s All Country World Index rose 0.4% toward another peak close, and its Asia Pacific benchmark gained 2.2% — but bitcoin added just 0.16% to trade near $64,000 and the CoinDesk 20 was flat, with 11 components up and nine down. The divergence is crypto-specific: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows in the first half of 2026 as capital rotated into AI-linked assets. DWF Labs summarized it plainly in a new report: “Institutional and retail interest in crypto as an investment has cooled as AI absorbs a disproportionate share of capital and attention.” The one standout was PUMP, up 115% in 24 hours with futures open interest rising 9% alongside the price — though CoinDesk notes the OI level is not historically unusual; the single-day move is the story, not the aggregate. A $4 billion, 60-day contraction in Tether’s market cap adds a structural concern: USDT supply expands when new money enters crypto and shrinks when it leaves, and this is one of the steepest contractions on record. CryptoQuant frames it as potentially late-stage selling — past troughs this deep have preceded bitcoin recoveries — but the signal only confirms once USDT supply turns back up. It hasn’t yet. Circle reported Q2 revenue of $701 million, a 7% year-on-year gain but a miss versus analyst estimates. Today’s U.S. jobs data and ISM Services PMI could provide the directional catalyst the market is waiting for. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

SpaceX beat earnings! Its bitcoin didn't...

SpaceX beat earnings but its bitcoin lost $540M in value. The CLARITY Act is frozen as Warren asks the SEC to investigate Trump's memecoin. And Samsung is about to put stablecoins on 800 million phones. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Tuesday, August 4, 2026 SpaceX tops Wall Street revenue forecast, posts $540 million loss on bitcoin holdings SpaceX posted its first earnings as a public company Tuesday — Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion beating the $6.9 billion consensus, adjusted EBITDA nearly tripling to $3.5 billion, and net loss narrowing to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier. The bitcoin footnote is notable: SpaceX held onto its 18,712 BTC through the quarter but the value of those holdings fell from $1.64 billion to $1.10 billion as bitcoin dropped 33%. SPCX fell 6% after-hours despite closing the regular session up nearly 10%, with the stock's first major insider unlock — 912 million shares — arriving August 6. Read more → A message from CME Group We are proud to announce that Nasdaq CME Crypto Index futures are now live and available to trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week.   Combining Nasdaq's expertise in world-class indexing with our liquid, transparent and CFTC-regulated marketplace, this launch continues to deepen our partnership.   The result is a groundbreaking new way for you to gain exposure to a significant portion of the cryptocurrency market — including bitcoin, ether, XRP, Solana, Cardano, Stellar, Chainlink and newly added Bitcoin Cash — all within a single, financially settled transaction.   Why trade Nasdaq CME Crypto index futures? Broad exposure, simplified: Instead of trading multiple assets, you can access a basket of the world's leading cryptocurrencies in one trade. Capital efficiency: Control a larger position with a smaller capital outlay and benefit from potential margin offsets. Right-sized trading: Choose between larger- or Micro-sized contracts to precisely scale your strategy — anywhere, anytime. Find out more Policy CLARITY Act sits idle over Trump ethics question as Warren asks SEC to investigate him The Senate has yet to take up the CLARITY Act as negotiators wait for the White House to respond to a toughened ethics provision — a rewrite sent over a week ago that still hasn't received an answer. Simultaneously, Senators Warren and Blumenthal asked SEC Chair Atkins to investigate Trump's $TRUMP memecoin, citing $3.8 billion in investor losses against Trump's own $636 million gain. The SEC has already declared memecoins outside its jurisdiction. Thune is pushing to begin the Senate floor vote this week, but without 60 yes votes in hand, the bill risks a fatal defeat heading into summer recess. Read more → Business Samsung is poised to become a dominant stablecoin distributor, analysts say Samsung announced at Galaxy Unpacked 2026 that it will add native stablecoin features — fiat-pegged savings and payments accounts — to 800 million new smartphones via Samsung Wallet across 61 countries. Analysts say the move positions Samsung as one of crypto's most powerful distribution plays: "Distribution is the scarce asset here, and Samsung owns a great deal of it," said Joseph Goh of Areta. The company's $408 million stake in Upbit operator Dunamu adds the infrastructure layer beneath it. If Samsung follows through, stablecoins like USDC would reach a billion-device installed base without requiring users to download a separate crypto app. Read more → Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk’s newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

Bitcoin has every reason to panic. It isn't.

Bitcoin has plenty of reasons to panic but volatility is at its lowest since May. First U.S. spot BTC ETF to close. Solana proposal to ramp burns 14x. BTC back near $64K. Tuesday, August 4, 2026 The bitcoin market has plenty of reasons to freak out — the Coldcard hack, anemic institutional demand, rising real Treasury yields, and a still-unresolved regulatory environment — yet panic is nowhere to be found. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has dropped to 36%, its lowest level since May 31 and down sharply from highs near 60% in early June. A market that shrugs off bad news is often considered a bullish signal, poised for a notable upswing. Still, the data is not uniformly encouraging. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted $61.53 million in outflows last week, snapping a three-week streak of tepid inflows. USDT’s market cap has fallen to its lowest level since October and USDC is also in a downtrend — both classical signals of tightening liquidity and subdued risk appetite. Real yields on longer-duration Treasuries have risen to their highest since 2008, denting the case for risk assets. Against that, Bitfinex analysts note that approximately 155,000 BTC moved into the $62,000–$65,000 cost-basis range, suggesting sellers at those levels are being absorbed — a development that could keep BTC range-bound until a stronger catalyst emerges. BTC is trading back near $64,000 today. Stay alert! Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 9am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $63,700.23 +0.06% ETH $1,865.29 −1.04% SOL $73.52 −1.44% XRP $1.07 −1.77% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. What matters today Business   Story 1 of 2 First U.S. spot bitcoin ETF to close as inflows dwindle, investors chase AI returns. Crypto asset manager Hashdex is set to close and liquidate its $14.7 million spot bitcoin ETF (DEFI), in what appears to be the first liquidation of a U.S. spot bitcoin offering. Hashdex cited an evaluation of assets under management, liquidity, operating costs, and investor interest. The closure reflects a broader trend: U.S. spot bitcoin ETF inflows have dwindled as investors chased better returns from AI-related investments, with the funds posting net outflows in each of the past three months. BlackRock’s iShares Future AI & Tech ETF gained 39% through July while the crypto market fell roughly 36%. DEFI’s final day of trading will be Aug. 17, after which it will liquidate and distribute cash proceeds to shareholders. The closure does not signal the end of the broader market: BlackRock’s IBIT holds $47.08 billion, Fidelity’s FBTC another $9.95 billion in cumulative inflows, and the total U.S. spot bitcoin ETF market holds $77.6 billion in net assets. Hashdex itself remains in the U.S. ETF market with more than $200 million across its remaining products. Read more → Tech   Story 2 of 2 A new Solana proposal would take daily SOL burns from $47,000 to $650,000. Solana validators began signaling support this week for two linked governance proposals — SIMD-0553 and SIMD-0550 — that would simultaneously increase SOL burns and reduce new issuance. SIMD-0553 introduces resource-based transaction fees, lifting daily burns from around 650 SOL (roughly $47,000) to between 7,500 and 9,000 SOL (up to $650,000 a day). SIMD-0550 doubles the annual disinflation rate to 30%, pulling Solana’s 1.5% terminal inflation floor forward to 2029 from 2032 and removing about 18.9 million SOL of emissions over six years — worth roughly $1.36 billion. Together, the proposals impact supply from both ends: burning more of what exists while issuing less of what is new. Initial support stands at 24.94 million SOL, roughly 38% of the way to the 15% threshold needed before an actual vote, led heavily by validator Helius at 16.03 million SOL. The proposals need roughly 40 million more SOL in backing before signaling closes on Aug. 18. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences