🚨 New ETFs that buy bitcoin for you

Franklin Templeton filed ETFs that turn corporate dividends into bitcoin. BTC has traded below mining cost for five months. Miner capitulation is in the data. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Friday, June 19, 2026   Franklin Templeton just filed two ETFs that automatically turn corporate dividends into bitcoin — a structural demand mechanism that bypasses active allocation decisions entirely. The funds hold 95% U.S. equities and 5% bitcoin, with all dividend income reinvested into BTC exposure. It is a quiet but significant step in bitcoin’s institutionalization, arriving on a day when BTC is sliding for a fourth straight session below $63,000. Miners, meanwhile, have been underwater for five months — the longest stretch since 2022. Have a good weekend. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8:30am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $62,445 −2.89% ETH $1,685 −3.60% SOL $68.10 −4.74% XRP $1.12 −3.77% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Ledn Better Rates. Same Gold-Standard Protection Ledn has introduced their lowest rates ever. No complexity, no fine print. The larger the loan the lower the rate. These new rates apply to all new loans, refinances, and renewals. You’ll see all the rates upfront, before you apply. The new, lower rates come with Ledn’s gold standard protection. Your bitcoin remains custodied and is never lent out for interest. Perfect 8 year track record of keeping clients assets safe Auto top-up, LTV alerts, and partial repayments to keep you in control Repay whenever you want—with zero penalties or monthly payments Ledn’s perfect $11B+ track record through every market cycle in the last eight years speaks for itself. Don’t choose between a great rate and the safety of your bitcoin. Get both, at Ledn. Check out your rate by using their loan calculator at ledn.io Find out more CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Franklin Templeton just filed ETFs that automatically turn corporate dividends into bitcoin. Franklin Templeton filed the Franklin US Equity Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF and the Franklin US Innovation Bitcoin DRIP Index ETF with the SEC on Thursday. Both funds hold 95% U.S. equities and 5% bitcoin, with one offering broad large-cap market exposure and the other focused on growth and innovation companies. The defining feature: all dividend income collected from the equity holdings is automatically reinvested into bitcoin — via BTC ETFs, futures, or other instruments — creating a low-maintenance, self-replenishing 5% bitcoin allocation funded entirely by corporate dividends. It is a structural demand mechanism that bypasses the active allocation decision: investors don’t choose to buy more bitcoin, the dividend stream does it for them. Coming from a firm managing hundreds of billions in assets, the filing signals that Franklin Templeton views bitcoin as a permanent component of multi-asset portfolio construction rather than a tactical bet. It lands on a particularly rough day for BTC, which is down nearly 3% for a fourth consecutive session, suggesting the institutional thesis and the near-term price action are operating on completely different timescales. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Bitcoin has traded below its mining cost for five months. Miners are being squeezed. Bitcoin’s all-in mining cost — covering electricity, hardware depreciation, and overhead — is estimated at $63,000–$68,000 for most publicly listed miners. BTC has traded below that range for most of the past five months, the longest stretch of sustained below-cost prices since the 2022 bear market. The pressure is showing in the data: miners are selling BTC into the market to cover operating costs rather than accumulating, adding to sell-side pressure at exactly the wrong moment. Publicly listed miners including Riot, MARA, and Core Scientific have seen equity prices decline sharply alongside BTC. Historically, prolonged miner capitulation events — where miners are forced to sell or shut off machines — have coincided with bear market bottoms, as the weakest producers exit and hash rate temporarily drops. The current setup shows signs of that capitulation building, but analysts caution that a disorderly miner exit can also extend the drawdown before it resolves. Read more → Research | Sponsored by Gate   Story 3 of 3 Spot trading at its lowest since November 2023. Volumes fell for a fourth straight month. CoinDesk Research’s latest exchange analysis, sponsored by Gate, shows May combined spot and derivatives volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41 trillion — the lowest reading since September 2024 and the fourth consecutive monthly decline. The retreat reflects a market in which institutional capital has either rotated into AI-linked equities or is waiting on macro clarity that the hawkish Fed did not provide this week. One exception: RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend to an all-time high, underlining that tokenized real-world assets continue to attract structural demand even as broader crypto trading compresses. The volume trough combined with this week’s renewed selling pressure sets up a fragile market heading into the weekend — thin liquidity means any directional catalyst can move prices sharply before buyers or sellers have time to respond. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

"Median time to break even: two days"

Kraken: buying bitcoin here has returned 113% median in a year. The bond market disagrees. And spot volumes just hit a 2.5-year low. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Thursday, June 18, 2026 Buying bitcoin below its 200-week average has historically delivered over 100% in median returns, Kraken says Bitcoin has dipped below its 200-week simple moving average twice in the past two weeks — a level currently sitting near $62,358 — before closing each week back above it. Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo told CoinDesk those rare tests of the 200-week floor have historically been among the most favorable entry points in bitcoin's history: median one-year returns of 113%, median two-year returns of 313%, a median time to break even of just two days, and a median maximum drawdown of only 9% over the following year. Since mid-2017, weekly closes below the 200-week SMA have occurred on only about 10% of trading days — making the current zone genuinely unusual. The caveat Perfumo is careful to include: past performance does not guarantee future results, and the macro backdrop today — a hawkish Fed, a rising dollar, rates expected to stay higher through 2028 — is more challenging than in prior cycle bottoms. Bitcoin is trading near $63,900, just above the average. The question the data is asking: is this a generational entry or the beginning of a break below? Read the full story → Markets The bond market is flashing a clear signal on interest rates. Bitcoin bulls should take note. The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened sharply, with the 10-year/2-year spread at its tightest since April 2025 — a configuration that historically signals the Fed is committed to a more restrictive stance for longer. The Fed's latest projections show policy rates staying elevated through 2028, making fixed-income assets increasingly attractive relative to non-yielding risk assets like bitcoin. Warsh's first FOMC meeting struck a hawkish tone even as Trump signed the Iran peace deal, which would normally be a tailwind for risk assets. The bond market is doing something specific: it's pricing in the Fed being more worried about a second inflation wave than it is about growth, and that's a direct headwind for crypto. The four-year halving cycle thesis — pointing to a potential bottom around October — remains intact in the long-term view, but the near-term bond signal is telling bitcoin bulls that patience, not positioning, is the current edge. Read more → Research · Sponsored by Gate Spot trading at lowest since November 2023 as volumes fall for fourth straight month Combined exchange spot volumes fell 3.45% in May to $4.41 trillion — the lowest monthly total since November 2023 and the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Capital is rotating out of crypto spot markets and into AI stocks, IPO allocations, and traditional fixed income. One notable counter-trend: RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the broader decline, hitting a new all-time high — underlining that institutional-grade onchain products are finding demand even as retail activity contracts. Read more → Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk’s newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.

🤑 Is bitcoin's nemesis about to break out?

The Dollar Index is on the verge of a breakout — and that’s bitcoin’s nemesis. Warsh turned hawkish. BTC/ETH ETFs lost $111M. Market positioning is defensive and thin. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Thursday, June 18, 2026   Bitcoin’s nemesis — the Dollar Index — is on the verge of a major breakout. Warsh’s first FOMC decision held rates as expected, but his press conference was more hawkish than the market had priced, signalling the Fed is more concerned about inflation than growth. Stocks rose on the Iran deal signing. Bitcoin and ether fell. BTC and ETH ETFs lost $111 million combined as rate cut hopes died. The DXY now sits at a technical inflection point: if it breaks higher, BTC faces a mechanical headwind that has reliably capped rallies all year. Marex analysts call today’s positioning “defensive and thin.” Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $64,415 −1.37% ETH $1,784 −0.60% SOL $73.17 −1.69% XRP $1.18 −4.00% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Ledn Better Rates. Same Gold-Standard Protection Ledn has introduced their lowest rates ever. No complexity, no fine print. The larger the loan the lower the rate. These new rates apply to all new loans, refinances, and renewals. You’ll see all the rates upfront, before you apply. The new, lower rates come with Ledn’s gold standard protection. Your bitcoin remains custodied and is never lent out for interest. Perfect 8 year track record of keeping clients assets safe Auto top-up, LTV alerts, and partial repayments to keep you in control Repay whenever you want—with zero penalties or monthly payments Ledn’s perfect $11B+ track record through every market cycle in the last eight years speaks for itself. Don’t choose between a great rate and the safety of your bitcoin. Get both, at Ledn. Check out your rate by using their loan calculator at ledn.io Find out more CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Bitcoin’s nemesis — the Dollar Index — is on the verge of a major breakout. Warsh held rates as expected but delivered a hawkish press conference — signalling the Fed is more worried about inflation than growth — and the Dollar Index responded by pushing toward key resistance. The DXY’s near-perfect inverse correlation with BTC has been a defining feature of this bear market: earlier this year the 30-day correlation ran at −0.90, meaning 81% of bitcoin’s short-term price moves were statistically linked to shifts in the greenback. A DXY breakout would mechanically cap any BTC recovery while that correlation holds. The outlook for the dollar is supported by three structural tailwinds now: the hawkish Fed, oil prices still elevated on residual Hormuz constraints even post-ceasefire signing, and a global repricing of the rate path as the BOJ also tightened last week. Stocks rose on the formal Iran deal — the ceasefire was signed yesterday — but crypto did not participate. The divergence between equities and crypto on a risk-on day is itself a warning sign about near-term positioning. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Bitcoin and ether ETFs lost $111 million combined as rate cut hopes died. U.S. spot bitcoin and ether ETFs lost a combined $111 million on Tuesday as Warsh’s press conference killed near-term rate cut expectations. Bitcoin ETFs bled the majority of the losses; ether ETFs also recorded outflows for the second consecutive session. The hawkish Fed tone hit crypto harder than equities because crypto’s recent recovery thesis has been premised partly on the expectation that the Fed would eventually blink — either on inflation or on growth. Warsh made clear he sees neither reason to blink now. Fed funds futures now price zero cuts in 2026 and an 80% probability of a 25bps hike by December. That repricing means every macro-driven crypto recovery attempt faces a structural interest-rate headwind that was not fully in the market 48 hours ago. The Iran ceasefire formal signing provided no lasting boost; the market had already priced the deal, and the hawkish Fed more than offset the geopolitical relief. Read more → Markets   Story 3 of 3 Crypto market positioning is “defensive and thin” after the Fed, Marex analysts say. Marex analysts describe Wednesday’s crypto market as “defensive and thin” — a combination they flag as inherently volatile: thin liquidity amplifies moves in both directions while defensive positioning means any macro surprise could trigger a sharp unwind in either direction. Oil has risen for five consecutive sessions, keeping the inflation channel open despite the ceasefire. Hormuz remains effectively constrained even post-signing, with full tanker traffic normalization expected to take weeks rather than days. The Warsh Fed’s hawkish stance removes the near-term catalyst that macro-driven bitcoin bulls needed to push through $68,000. Marex’s base case is that the market remains range-bound between $60,000 and $68,000 through the summer, with a breakout in either direction requiring a change in one of three variables: the Fed’s inflation narrative, Hormuz traffic normalization, or a resumption of ETF inflows. None of those three are currently trending in the right direction. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences