A glimmer of hope with BTC at $59K

The dollar and Treasury yields may carry a glimmer of hope for bitcoin. Iran de-escalation lifted stocks but not crypto. Europe’s unlicensed crypto firms face wipeout today. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Monday, June 29, 2026   Buried in the pain of bitcoin’s worst month since June 2022 — down roughly 19% — is a glimmer of hope in the dollar and Treasury yield market positioning that bears watching. The US and Iran agreed Sunday to halt strikes and meet in Qatar this week; equity futures gained 0.5% on the news, but crypto barely moved. Traders have been burned by enough geopolitical relief rallies that the Qatar meeting registers as a maybe rather than a catalyst. The market that matters for bitcoin is rates. And today Europe’s MiCA deadline falls — unlicensed crypto firms must cease EU operations by July 1. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $59,800 −0.55% ETH $1,572 −0.27% SOL $73.14 +2.43% XRP $1.05 −0.30% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from RealFi Most stablecoins leave capital sitting still. RealFi is different. It connects on-chain capital to real-world markets like US Treasuries, money market funds, and private credit. Real transparency. Real impact. RealFi. RealFi is launching August 2026. Join the waitlist at realfi.co. Join the waitlist CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 The dollar and U.S. Treasury yield market positions may carry a glimmer of hope for bitcoin. Bitcoin is down roughly 19% in June — on track for its worst month since June 2022 — and down 12% for Q2, a third consecutive quarterly decline, something not seen since 2022. The pace of decline is slowing: Q4 2025 was −23%, Q1 2026 −22.2%, Q2 2026 −12% so far — a meaningful deceleration. But the glimmer in the data is in rates and dollar positioning. The DXY’s near-perfect −0.90 inverse correlation with BTC has been the defining mechanical headwind of this bear market. For that to reverse, the Fed’s hawkish narrative must soften — and there are tentative signs that market positioning for further rate hikes may be reaching an extreme. Open interest in short-dollar futures has climbed toward levels that have historically preceded short squeezes, and the Iran de-escalation — the US and Iran agreed Sunday to halt strikes and meet in Qatar this week — if it results in genuine Hormuz normalization, would reduce the oil-driven inflation channel that has kept the Fed hawkish. None of this is a call to buy; it’s a call to watch. BTC at $59,800 heading into July is not a long setup. But it is a setup where the next macro move could be larger than recent sessions suggest, in either direction. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Bitcoin dips to $59,700 as Iran de-escalation lifts stocks — but not crypto. Bitcoin traded near $59,700 Monday morning, down 0.3% on the day and 6.8% on the week, as U.S.-Iran de-escalation lifted equity futures but left digital assets unmoved. Axios reported Sunday that the two countries agreed to fully halt strikes and meet in Qatar this week to resume talks over the Strait of Hormuz and a broader end to the conflict. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5% on the news. Crypto did not follow. The non-reaction fits the pattern of the past two weeks: bitcoin jumped on the peace deal signing June 19, then gave it back as the hawkish Fed and ETF outflows reasserted. Traders have now been burned by enough geopolitical relief rallies that the Qatar meeting registers as a maybe rather than a catalyst. Ether edged up 0.3% to $1,572; SOL added 1.5% — the one outperformer — while XRP and Dogecoin continued to slide. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded $4.06 billion in net outflows this month, the largest monthly redemption on record, exceeding the prior high of $3.56 billion in February 2025. On a year-to-date basis, net outflows total roughly $5 billion — a structural institutional exit that has no obvious near-term reversal catalyst. Read more → Policy   Story 3 of 3 Europe’s unlicensed crypto firms face wipeout as the final MiCA deadline falls. Today is the last day. Under MiCA’s full CASP authorization regime, any firm offering crypto-asset services to EU clients must hold a license from at least one EU member state by July 1 — or wind down EU operations. Only around 230 licenses have been granted across the bloc, leaving more than 80% of registered EU crypto service providers without authorization. Binance, the world’s largest exchange by volume, told users in France, Italy, Poland, and Spain last week that it was suspending services after withdrawing its Greek application. Binance says it will pursue a French license and expects to return; Coinbase and OKX have moved quickly to poach its displaced users, with Coinbase offering a 5% transfer bonus and OKX providing up to 8% deposit matching. ESMA has made clear that operating without MiCA authorization after today exposes firms to fines of up to €5 million or 3% of annual turnover, public censure, and potential management bans. For EU retail users of unlicensed platforms, the message is equally direct: MiCA’s investor protections — asset segregation, disclosure requirements, complaint-handling — do not apply to clients of unauthorized providers. The deadline reshapes the European competitive landscape toward licensed venues and creates a structural tailwind for compliant players that will play out over the next 12–18 months. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences

Did Binance just lose 450 million EU users?

Binance just lost the EU. Bitcoin bounced from $58K but derivatives aren't impressed. And Strategy's STRC clock is ticking. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Friday, June 26, 2026 Policy Binance tells EU users it will no longer provide services after failing to secure MiCA license Binance has notified users across France, Italy, Poland, and Spain that it will suspend services from July 1 after withdrawing its MiCA license application in Greece on June 24 — four days before the EU's hard deadline. The Hellenic Capital Market Commission never issued a formal decision on the application, submitted in January 2026 through a local holding company, and Greek regulators had raised concerns about Binance's AML controls and whether former CEO Changpeng Zhao could pass MiCA's "fit and proper" test. MiCA requires a single license from any EU member state to passport services across all 27 — without one, Binance cannot legally serve EU users. The exchange has told users their assets remain safe and accessible, and new registrations in the bloc have been halted. Binance plans to seek authorization through France instead, though any approval is likely weeks or months away. Only around 194 firms have successfully obtained MiCA licenses as of mid-2026, underscoring how many exchanges are scrambling. "Our ambitions in Europe remain the same, and we are confident we will secure a MiCA licence in the coming months," Binance said in a statement. Read more → A message from Fidelity Careers Drive your crypto career forward at Fidelity It's an exciting time to be working in crypto, and Fidelity provides the resources and platform you need to truly grow and scale your impact. At Fidelity, we've been building our digital assets ecosystem since 2014 with the same rigor and long-term commitment as our traditional asset classes. Our builders work with a unique "scan, try, scale" approach, giving you the experimental nature of a startup backed by the reach and depth of a large institution. This is how we turn groundbreaking ideas into reality. Whether your background is in UX, product management, tech, or operations, we want your help to discover what's next. Let's turn the promise of digital assets into a reality, together. Learn more about crypto careers at Fidelity Markets Bitcoin bounces from $58,000 as derivatives signal more pain in the pipeline Bitcoin touched $58,100 Thursday — its lowest level since September 2024 — before rebounding to around $59,700 Friday as the crypto market clings to a crucial support level to close out the first half. The bounce is fragile: derivatives data show rising stress across the board, with futures open interest jumping as traders add shorts, implied volatility and put skew climbing, and over $1 billion in leveraged positions — mostly longs — liquidated in 24 hours. ETH failed to mirror the bounce, dropping a further 1% and extending its losing streak to three straight days. Today's session is being heavily shaped by the largest quarterly options expiry of 2026: $10.6 billion in bitcoin options on Deribit expired Friday morning, with 80% of open interest underwater and bitcoin trading roughly $11,000 below the $72,000 max pain level — the sharpest sign yet that the institutional hedging playbook has been rewritten by ETF outflows. Deutsche Bank now forecasts two Fed rate hikes in 2026, reinforcing the liquidity contraction that has made yield-free assets structurally less attractive. Bitcoin is down 32% in H1 2026 — its worst first half since 2018. Read more → Markets All eyes on Strategy's June 30 ex-dividend date and monthly STRC dividend rate reset Strategy's STRC preferred stock is trading around $73 — roughly 27% below its $100 par value — as investors focus on two events tied to June 30. The ex-dividend date lands Monday, with eligible holders receiving a $0.48 per share payment on July 15. But at less than 0.7% of the stock price, that's unlikely to move the needle on its own. The bigger watch item is the monthly dividend rate reset: with STRC's effective yield now near 15% and the stock persistently below par, investors widely expect Strategy to raise the rate from 11.50% to at least 12% or 12.50% to pull shares back toward $100. Strategy has held the rate flat at 11.50% for four consecutive months — a streak that has coincided with STRC trading as low as $64 earlier this month. The reset mechanism matters because maintaining STRC near par is critical to Strategy's ability to issue shares through its ATM program and raise capital for bitcoin purchases. With bitcoin itself down 32% year-to-date and MSTR down 43%, pressure on the STRC yield reset is the most immediate lever the company has to stabilize its preferred stock — and signal to the market that the capital structure remains functional. Read more → Know someone who should be reading this? Share this newsletter See all of CoinDesk’s newsletters    CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York,NY,10011,USA, Unsubscribe Manage Preferences   Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.