Bitcoin left behind in the geopolitical melee

Mark Cuban sold most of his BTC. Gold hit $5,000, bitcoin didn’t budge. The hedge thesis is on trial — and Congress wants to ban prediction markets. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Friday, May 22, 2026   Bitcoin has been left behind in the geopolitical melee. Gold hit $5,000. The dollar weakened. Bitcoin dropped anyway — and Mark Cuban just sold most of his BTC, saying it failed as the hedge he expected it to be. BTC implied volatility just hit a seven-month low of 38%, its quietest since October’s peak, even as Iran tensions, macro uncertainty, and congressional scrutiny of prediction markets swirl around it. Altcoins are picking up the slack. Have a good weekend. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 8am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $77,341 −0.04% ETH $2,126 −0.37% SOL $85.10 −0.36% XRP $1.38 −0.14% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Grayscale Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (ticker: GSOL) is now delivering enhanced value to investors, including 100% staking. Solana staking rewards have historically averaged 6-8% a year.1 Learn more here. Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (GSOL), an exchange traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“40 Act”), and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. GSOL is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. GSOL is not suitable for an investor who cannot afford to the loss of the entire investment. An investment in GSOL is not a direct investment in Solana. Learn more Please read the prospectus carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Trust. Potential staking rewards are earned by the Fund. The Fund’s ability to engage in staking is conditional and may be modified. Staking requires that the Fund lock up SOL for the period of time required by the staking protocol, meaning the Fund cannot sell or transfer the staked SOL, thereby making it illiquid for the period it is being staked. 1 Stakingrewards.com. The range observed is from 09/16/22 to 09/28/25 and the average over this period is 7.10%. Past performance is not indicative of future results. CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 Mark Cuban sold most of his BTC. “Not the hedge I expected.” Altcoins pick up the slack. Billionaire Mark Cuban disclosed he has sold roughly 80% of his bitcoin holdings, saying it failed to act as the safe haven he expected during the Iran war and dollar weakness — “gold just blew up to $5,000, bitcoin dropped.” He still holds ETH for its utility and dismissed most other crypto as “garbage.” Bitcoin defenders note BTC is up more than 16% since the conflict began — the timeframe matters. Meanwhile BTC implied volatility hit a seven-month low of 38%, its quietest reading since October 2025’s peak, even as Strategy continues buying: 171,238 BTC accumulated in 2026 alone, more than double the ~63,450 mined in the same period. The supply math is relentlessly bullish; the price has not yet agreed. Altcoins — AI tokens, HYPE, Near Protocol, privacy coins — are capturing the session’s speculative flows. Read more → Markets   Story 2 of 3 Crypto majors stuck in tight range. AI tokens and HYPE are where the action is. Bitcoin is pinned between $76,000 and $78,000 for a fourth consecutive session as derivatives signal an unusually calm market: volatility selling is dominating the options market and Deribit’s skew has flattened to near zero. The action has moved firmly into altcoins. AI-linked tokens are leading on the back of renewed interest after Thursday’s earnings season and Near Protocol’s dynamic resharding announcement. HYPE is extending its winning streak on continued DEX volume and the SpaceX perpetuals launch. Privacy coins — ZEC, XMR — remain elevated. The rotation is textbook: when BTC stalls with vol compressed, capital chases narrative. The risk is that a macro shock — a fresh Iran escalation or a surprise in next week’s data — breaks the range sharply in either direction with thin liquidity cushioning the move. Read more → Policy   Story 3 of 3 Congress wants to ban prediction markets. A 98% win rate and a $520K exploit explain why. Congressman Lance Gooden is pushing legislation to ban crypto prediction markets on national security grounds, arguing they have become vectors for insider trading on classified information, geopolitical intelligence, and military outcomes. The legislative push follows two damaging disclosures: Bubblemaps investigators found 80 Polymarket bets with a 98% win rate — statistically impossible through luck — suggesting systematic information advantages, while ZachXBT flagged a $520,000 exploit on Polymarket’s Polygon contract. The timing is brutal for a sector that was this week simultaneously applying for CFTC approval, adding parlays, and being reviewed for ETF inclusion. The prediction market industry’s rapid mainstreaming has now put it squarely in the crosshairs of national security legislation — the same week the SEC was considering embracing it. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences