🚀 $250K by 2029? The case is building.

Bitcoin peaked in October 2025. If the four-year cycle holds, it bottoms in October 2026. Then $250K by 2029. Here’s the case. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ SPONSORED BY Tuesday, May 19, 2026   Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving — right on historical schedule. If the four-year cycle holds, that means a bear market bottom around October 2026, followed by a new bull run targeting $250,000 by late 2029. It’s a contentious thesis — ETF institutionalization and regulatory momentum have led many to declare the cycle dead — but Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, Peter Brandt, and others say the charts have never looked more consistent with the pattern. BTC is holding near $76,800 today as markets digest a pivotal monthly close. Read today’s full report → Market snapshot As of 7:30am EST Asset Price 24h BTC $76,810 +0.56% ETH $2,114 +0.90% SOL $84.50 +0.48% XRP $1.37 +1.31% Prices approximate. Visit coindesk.com/price for live data. A message from Grayscale Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (ticker: GSOL) is now delivering enhanced value to investors, including 100% staking. Solana staking rewards have historically averaged 6-8% a year.1 Learn more here. Grayscale Solana Staking ETF (GSOL), an exchange traded product, is not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (“40 Act”), and therefore is not subject to the same regulations and protections as 40 Act registered ETFs and mutual funds. GSOL is subject to significant risk and heightened volatility. GSOL is not suitable for an investor who cannot afford to the loss of the entire investment. An investment in GSOL is not a direct investment in Solana. Learn more Please read the prospectus carefully before investing in the Fund. Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Trust. Potential staking rewards are earned by the Fund. The Fund’s ability to engage in staking is conditional and may be modified. Staking requires that the Fund lock up SOL for the period of time required by the staking protocol, meaning the Fund cannot sell or transfer the staked SOL, thereby making it illiquid for the period it is being staked. 1 Stakingrewards.com. The range observed is from 09/16/22 to 09/28/25 and the average over this period is 7.10%. Past performance is not indicative of future results. CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. What matters today Markets   Story 1 of 3 BTC peaked in October. If the cycle holds, it bottoms in October. Then $250K by 2029. Bitcoin topped out above $126,000 in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving — textbook four-year cycle timing. Veteran trader Peter Brandt, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, and others say that maps the bear market bottom to September–October 2026, before a new uptrend carries BTC toward $250,000 by late 2029 (18 months after the next halving in April 2028). The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement for this cycle projects the same October 2026 window, and Glassnode’s Vector network-growth indicator is approaching the 60-level threshold that has historically marked the end of local bottoms. The counterargument: ETF institutionalization and regulatory tailwinds have broken the four-year dynamic — CoinShares data this morning shows investors rotating from BTC (−$982M weekly outflows) into XRP (+$67.6M) and SOL (+$55.1M), a pattern more consistent with selective positioning than a cycle bottom forming. Read more → Policy   Story 2 of 3 The SEC is set to propose a tokenized stock framework. Wall Street’s efforts are deepening. Bloomberg reports the SEC is poised to release a major crypto proposal laying out a framework for tokenized equities — bringing on-chain stock trading within the U.S. regulatory perimeter for the first time. The move comes as Wall Street’s tokenization push accelerates: Securitize, Jump, and Jupiter last week unveiled the first institutional-grade on-chain secondary market for real stocks, and Nasdaq is now providing data to power on-chain equity perpetuals. A formal SEC framework would remove the single largest legal barrier to institutional adoption of tokenized equities, with implications for settlement efficiency, 24/7 trading, and the role of traditional custodians. The proposal is expected to cover which securities qualify, disclosure requirements, and custody standards for tokenized instruments. Read more → DeFi   Story 3 of 3 Hyperliquid’s USDC deal could shift $160M from Coinbase and Circle into its ecosystem. Compass Point analysts estimate that Hyperliquid’s new USDC revenue-share arrangement could redirect approximately $160 million in annual revenue away from Coinbase and Circle and into Hyperliquid’s own ecosystem — a structural shift that analysts say would supercharge the HYPE token while materially compressing Circle and Coinbase margins. The deal positions Hyperliquid as a direct competitor to centralized stablecoin infrastructure at scale, leveraging its on-chain order book and fee architecture to capture yield that has historically accrued to the issuers. With HYPE already up meaningfully on the year and the platform’s perpetuals volume rivalling major centralized exchanges, the USDC arrangement marks the first credible attempt by a DeFi protocol to structurally disintermediate Circle and Coinbase from their core revenue stream. Read more → CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. Crypto Daybook Americas: A newsletter from CoinDesk Were you forwarded this newsletter? Sign up here.  Copyright © 2026 CoinDesk, All rights reserved.  CoinDesk, Inc., 61 9th Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10011, USA Unsubscribe Manage preferences